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24 Aug 2017



Dear Client

In his book “How not to be wrong” – “The power of mathematical thinking”, Jordan Ellenberg writes: “Which way you should go depends on where you already are”. It is good advice for anyone trying to make sense of the financial world, where an honest answer to nearly every question is, “it depends”. Stock prices are high, so future returns might be low, something like 3%-4% a year after inflation. In other words 10% - 6% = 4%. Is that bad? Compared with the past 80 years, yes. Compared with returns on bonds or cash, it is a God send.

Always asking, “Compared with what?” “Compared with when”? is a good way to make better decisions in a world where the path of least resistance often pushes you towards a poor one”.

Friendly greetings


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